Framigham Covid-19 data update August 2022

Framingham’s daily rate of known new Covid-19 cases has been bouncing around between 14 and 16 or so per 100K population the past few weeks. That’s slightly higher than the 10 to 12 a year ago. However, many more people are testing at home now than last summer, so official data is likely missing more cases.

Test positivity for “official” PCR tests administered to Framingham residents was 7.1%, according to data released today by the Massachusetts Department of Public Health. Last year at this time, positivity was below 2%. That’s another sign we’re probably missing more cases than a year ago, and the difference in rates between now and a year ago is probably greater than official data show.

The most recent Mass DPH data is for the 14-day period ending Aug. 27.

What to expect now that school has started? If you’re wondering about 2021 trends, late September and early October known Covid-19 cases last year were even lower than the end of August; cases last year started spiking around Thanksgiving.

I’m hesitant to assume there will be repeat seasonality trends, though, since virus mutation is the great unknown. Plus, there were still mask requirements in schools last fall, as well as more testing. On the other side, more student-age kids are now eligible for vaccination – and while vaccines don’t stop transmission, they do seem to reduce it at least somewhat.

In any case, I’ll be keeping an eye on the MWRA wastewater tests for Covid virus traces as well as official case rates and test positivity (although multiple communities would need an increase in cases before a significant rise in the MWRA data). We’ll also have to see how effective new boosters are against current and future variants.